Pakistan on Brink: General Munir’s Desperation, Why New Delhi Must Stay Vigilant

Pakistan is on the brink—economically, politically, and militarily. Which pillar will give in first is anyone’s guess. Islamabad, the political centre, stands isolated internationally, while Rawalpindi, the power centre, has lost favour with two of its key allies—the United States and the Taliban. The country is now in the hands of a desperate general who may resort to extreme measures to regain control—a prospect that should keep New Delhi on high alert.

The past few weeks have been testing times for Pakistan Army Chief General Asim Munir, who is facing near-mutiny within the ranks, political unrest, and the humiliation of leading a force that surrendered to ragtag Baloch fighters during the Jaffar Express passenger train hijacking standoff.

This led to former generals of the Pakistan Army openly questioning his leadership in public forums, a rare and damning commentary. Munir finds himself cornered, and this should concern India.

A Pattern of military misadventures

Since its creation in 1947, Pakistan’s military generals have frequently embarked on reckless adventures against Bharat—sometimes driven by overconfidence, at other times as a means of self-preservation. Given Pakistan’s current internal crisis, where General Munir is rapidly losing his grip over the armed forces, he may be tempted to take extreme steps. The question isn’t whether he believes his demoralised forces can defeat India’s military but whether military action against Bharat could unite Pakistan’s fragmented political, civilian, and military factions behind him. Bluffing his way out might be his only option.

The economic collapse triggered the crisis

Pakistan’s economic collapse has plunged the nation into social unrest, with families struggling to afford basic necessities- its food inflation stands at 30% as per World Bank estimates. This desperation has fueled a surge in crime and extortion, Karachi alone has reported a 25% rise in violent crime between 2020 -2023. Its political leaders have been forced to beg for financial aid worldwide. Even the Pakistan Army, once a fighting force, is now engaged in agricultural activities to sustain itself.

General Munir’s direct clash with political leader and former cricketer Imran Khan, culminating in Khan’s arrest, had put the military in unprecedented public confrontation—a rare occurrence in Pakistan’s history. In May 2023, enraged citizens the Pakistan Army headquarters in the garrison city of Rawalpindi and the Corps Commander’s residence in Lahore, vandalizing property, which led to the removal of Corps Commander Lt. Gen. Salman Fayyaz Ghani of the IV Corps along with other senior officers.

Three fatal missteps of Pakistan’s establishment

Pakistan’s establishment committed three disastrous errors: Overestimated its geopolitical importance and U.S. dependence, took the Taliban for granted, and severely underestimated Bharat’s strategic patience

Overplayed its geopolitical importance and US dependence

Since the Cold War and, more significantly, during the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan, successive Pakistani generals treated the U.S. as a bottomless well—tapping into its financial and geopolitical support without accountability.

Post-9/11, Pakistan double-crossed America—pretending to fight terrorism while siphoning U.S. resources for its survival. It assumed the US was trapped in Afghanistan and would remain forever dependent on Rawalpindi’s cooperation. Meanwhile, Pakistan cosied up to China, handing over strategic assets to Beijing under the Belt and Road Initiative. In doing so, the Pakistani Establishment failed to recognise that the US patience was wearing thin.

Antagonised its strategic asset—The Taliban

Remember the infamous tea-sipping moment of former ISI chief Lt. Gen. Faiz Hameed at the Serena Hotel in Kabul following the hasty US withdrawal from Afghanistan which installed Taliban 2.0 in Kabul? That image symbolised Pakistan’s arrogance—believing that the Taliban would remain its proxy indefinitely.

Pakistan misread Afghan sentiment. The Taliban, once a tool of Pakistan’s geopolitical ambitions, now recognises that it was merely exploited. The Taliban and Afghan fighters were treated as cannon fodder by Pakistan’s rulers, without any real commitment to Afghanistan’s stability or welfare. Today, the Taliban refuses to take orders from Rawalpindi, and anti-Pakistan sentiments in Afghanistan are at an all-time high.

Severely underestimated Bharat’s strategic patience

In June 2014, Bharat’s National Security Advisor Ajit Doval warned during a lecture at the Sastra University that another Mumbai-style attack could cost Pakistan Balochistan. Pakistan’s establishment clung to the belief that its nuclear arsenal and US patronage would shield it from repercussions even if it pursued a policy of wagging a “thousand-year war against India" and “bleeding India with a thousand cuts." However, since 2014, with a change in leadership in New Delhi, that assumption has been shattered. Today, Pakistan is bleeding internally, facing the possibility of disintegration into multiple smaller states.

This month, Baloch freedom fighters and Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) forces have inflicted severe casualties on Pakistan’s troops, forcing General Munir to convene a security meeting in Parliament. His subsequent declaration to turn Pakistan into a “hard state” is now being ridiculed even by Pakistanis.

A Desperate General’s reckless moves

It is evident that General Munir is not only unpopular among civilians and senior military officers but also increasingly desperate. He needs to project strength to retain control.

His recent bombing of Taliban positions in Afghanistan and his troops’ firing on peaceful protesters in Quetta, Balochistan—resulting in the “deaths of children”—are clear signs of his desperation. These actions signal his intent to assert dominance, but whether they succeed in consolidating his power remains uncertain.

Pakistan’s crisis is not just about one general, one political leader, or one economic meltdown—it is a systemic failure decades in the making. With its military losing legitimacy, its economy in free fall, and its geopolitical standing severely weakened, Pakistan’s future is more uncertain than ever.

The question now is not whether Pakistan will collapse but how soon—and whether its military leadership will choose reconciliation or self-destruction in their final moments of power. New Delhi must remain vigilant, for the General’s next move could hinge on this reckless bet.

(The author is Founder of My Startup TV)